• 24.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 13.2 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 40.6
• −1.6 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 44.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 136 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.