13.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.1 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.8
+0.8 opponent leak — they concede 196.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 15.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 22: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
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Splits · o14.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Samuelvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
120.9
74
Run Metresfavorable
100
1925.5
Samuel 120.9/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
52
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Samuel 1.5/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.8
21
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Samuel 5.8/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
71
Triesfavorable
100
5.2
Samuel 0.3/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
62
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Samuel 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
64
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Samuel 0.3/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
45
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Samuel 0.3/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.9
64
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Samuel 33.9/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Samuel120.9
74
SGI1925.5
100
Samuel 120.9/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Samuel1.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Runs
196.2per game · league avg 185.9
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else13.4(32)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)14.0(1)+0.6
Dry games13.4(31)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Runs
Avg diff
-0.5
Avg diff %
-6%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLKulikefu Finefeuiaki15.018+20%
07-26GLDBeau Fermor14.417+18%
07-26GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui15.518+16%
07-26GLDSiale Faeamani13.90-100%
07-26GLDDean Ieremia15.822+39%
07-18WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak15.722+40%
07-18WARMitchell Barnett16.119+18%
07-18WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad13.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±2.1 of Samuel's. Computed from this app's own records.