• 119.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 117.0 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 123.5
• −13.0 opponent leak — they concede 1504.1/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 90.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 35 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.