0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 20.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.3 at this ground — averages 0 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 6: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lucianovs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
91.9
57
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Luciano 91.9/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.9
64
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Luciano 1.9/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.5
57
Tacklesneutral
81
352.1
Luciano 18.5/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
45
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Luciano 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Luciano 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
51
Line Breaksunfavorable
31
4.5
Luciano 0.2/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
67
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Luciano 0.6/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
37.4
70
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Luciano 37.4/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 544.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Luciano91.9
57
CRO1504.1
0
Luciano 91.9/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Luciano1.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Points
20.6per game · league avg 23.7
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium0.0(4)-0.6
Everywhere else0.6(114)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(6)-0.6
Dry games0.6(112)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Points
Avg diff
-0.9
Avg diff %
-100%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02SOUAshton Ward1.50-100%
08-02SOUJohn Radel1.10-100%
08-02SOUJack Wighton0.90-100%
08-02SOUCody Walker1.50-100%
08-02SOUTevita Tatola0.40-100%
08-02SOUBrandon Smith0.70-100%
08-02SOUMatthew Dufty0.60-100%
08-02SOUKeaon Koloamatangi0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luciano's. Computed from this app's own records.