14.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 15.5
−0.8 opponent leak — they concede 176.5/game vs a 185.9 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 15.3 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 9.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o14.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tobyvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
141.9
85
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Toby 141.9/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
62
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Toby 1.8/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.8
98
Tacklesfavorable
81
352.1
Toby 40.8/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Toby 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
43
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Toby 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
31
4.5
Toby 0.0/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
86
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Toby 1.0/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
56.2
95
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Toby 56.2/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 544.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Toby141.9
85
CRO1504.1
0
Toby 141.9/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Toby1.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Runs
176.5per game · league avg 185.9
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium15.3(4)+6.0
Everywhere else9.2(59)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)6.0(5)-3.9
Dry games9.9(58)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Runs
Avg diff
-0.9
Avg diff %
-6%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02SOUAlex Johnston12.412-3%
08-02SOUCampbell Graham16.115-7%
08-02SOUTevita Tatola13.113-1%
08-02SOUJye Gray13.413-3%
07-26MANJason Saab14.113-8%
07-26MANTolutau Koula14.812-19%
07-26MANTaniela Paseka13.412-10%
07-26MANReuben Garrick14.815+1%
Similar = season average within ±2.2 of Toby's. Computed from this app's own records.