16.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 15.7 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 16.5
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 181.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
−2.2 at this ground — averages 13.8 there (15 gm)
vs them: averages 10.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o15.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.6°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.1 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Christianvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
157.9
92
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Christian 157.9/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.7
81
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Christian 2.7/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.1
8
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Christian 3.1/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
75
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Christian 0.3/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Christian 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
70
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Christian 0.3/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Christian 0.0/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
63.7
98
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Christian 63.7/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.6
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Christian157.9
92
DOL1652.5
38
Christian 157.9/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Christian2.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Runs
181.6per game · league avg 185.9
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park13.8(15)-1.0
Everywhere else14.8(50)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)16.0(7)+1.6
Dry games14.4(58)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.9
Avg diff %
-5%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIReece Walsh15.39-41%
08-08BRIJosiah Karapani17.813-27%
08-08BRIPayne Haas15.114-7%
08-08BRIPatrick Carrigan15.310-35%
07-31SGIValentine Holmes13.720+46%
07-31SGIClinton Gutherson17.423+32%
07-31SGIRyan Couchman14.120+42%
07-31SGIToby Couchman14.47-52%
Similar = season average within ±2.3 of Christian's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5