4.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.5 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.5
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 4.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o4.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.6°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 10.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jeremyvs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
43.3
23
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Jeremy 43.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
33
Tackle Breaksneutral
38
31.9
Jeremy 0.8/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
37.3
94
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Jeremy 37.3/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
55
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Jeremy 0.2/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
53
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Jeremy 0.1/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
59
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Jeremy 0.3/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
67
Offloadsneutral
100
11.6
Jeremy 0.6/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.2
28
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Jeremy 14.2/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Jeremy43.3
23
MAN1613.3
31
Jeremy 43.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jeremy0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Runs
186.4per game · league avg 185.9
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park4.7(3)-1.1
Everywhere else5.7(93)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)5.4(11)-0.4
Dry games5.7(85)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MAN · Runs
Avg diff
-1.1
Avg diff %
-30%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MELManaia Waitere5.80-100%
08-08MELTrent Toelau3.81-74%
08-08MELDavvy Moale3.42-42%
08-08MELAngus Hinchey4.38+88%
07-26CROHohepa Puru3.11-68%
07-26CROTuku Hau Tapuha3.40-100%
07-19GLDOliver Pascoe5.17+37%
07-19GLDJosh Patston4.15+21%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jeremy's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5