14.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.0 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 14.2
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 10.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o14.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jakevs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
162.3
94
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Jake 162.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.2
72
Tackle Breaksneutral
38
31.9
Jake 2.2/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.7
41
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Jake 13.7/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
94
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Jake 0.7/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
86
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Jake 0.4/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
94
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Jake 0.8/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
80
Offloadsfavorable
100
11.6
Jake 0.8/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
35.6
66
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Jake 35.6/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Jake162.3
94
MAN1613.3
31
Jake 162.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jake2.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Runs
186.4per game · league avg 185.9
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park6.7(3)-4.6
Everywhere else11.3(120)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)11.9(13)+0.8
Dry games11.1(110)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MAN · Runs
Avg diff
-1.4
Avg diff %
-12%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MELCameron Munster12.17-42%
08-08MELMoses Leo12.011-8%
08-08MELStefano Utoikamanu13.314+5%
08-08MELNick Meaney11.98-33%
07-26CROKL Iro15.517+10%
07-26CROWilliam Kennedy15.413-16%
07-26CROJesse Ramien14.212-16%
07-26CROAddin Fonua-Blake13.214+6%
Similar = season average within ±2.1 of Jake's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5