2.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.9 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.2
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 39.7/game vs a 32.7 league average
+1.1 at this ground — averages 3.6 there (7 gm)
vs them: averages 2.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Tackle Breaks
39.7per game · league avg 32.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Allianz Stadium3.6(7)+1.5
Everywhere else2.1(124)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.4(15)-0.9
Dry games2.3(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+8%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02WSTPatrick Herbert1.92+5%
08-02WSTTerrell May3.34+21%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou3.36+80%
08-02WSTHeamasi Makasini2.63+17%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva2.92-31%
08-02WSTJarome Luai2.21-54%
08-02WSTJahream Bula2.83+6%
08-02WSTApisai Koroisau1.72+20%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Keaon's. Computed from this app's own records.