33.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 30.8 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 37.3
−2.2 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1686.6 league average
+13.9 at this ground — averages 47.3 there (8 gm)
vs them: averages 74.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 30.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.5°C☂ 0mm (31%)🌬 11.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Davvyvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
30.8
15
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Davvy 30.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
16
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Davvy 0.4/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
9.1
29
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Davvy 9.1/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Davvy 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Davvy 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Davvy 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Davvy 0.0/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
11.9
22
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Davvy 11.9/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Davvy30.8
15
PEN1576.6
25
Davvy 30.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Davvy0.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Run Metres
1576.6per game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At AAMI Park47.3(8)-21.3
Everywhere else68.6(82)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)46.9(8)-21.7
Dry games68.6(82)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Run Metres
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
0%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01CBROwen Pattie30.241+36%
08-01CBRMatty Nicholson28.040+43%
07-23PARHarrison Edwards31.534+8%
07-03SOULiam Le Blanc26.426-1%
06-27NQLSoni Luke27.123-15%
06-27NQLReed Mahoney28.628-2%
05-10CBRJayden Brailey30.628-9%
05-10CBROwen Pattie30.211-64%
Similar = season average within ±4.6 of Davvy's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry119.5