33.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 32.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 33.9
+2.0 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.9 league average
−10.5 at this ground — averages 22.5 there (42 gm)
vs them: averages 23.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲venue ▼projection ▼
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tackles
365.4per game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Suncorp Stadium22.5(42)-1.8
Everywhere else24.3(30)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)24.2(5)+1.0
Dry games23.2(67)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Tackles
Avg diff
+4.9
Avg diff %
+18%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLiam Henry33.547+40%
08-07PENLindsay Smith30.050+67%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i33.438+14%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo36.719-48%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick28.756+95%
08-01GLDMoeaki Fotuaika28.632+12%
08-01GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui31.528-11%
08-01GLDArama Hau28.320-29%
Similar = season average within ±4.9 of Xavier's. Computed from this app's own records.