0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 2.5/game vs a 3.5 league average
+0.5 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (57 gm)
vs them: averages 0.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 7: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Try Assists
2.5per game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Try Assists
At Suncorp Stadium0.8(57)+0.3
Everywhere else0.5(60)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Try Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)0.9(9)+0.3
Dry games0.6(108)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Try Assists
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-24%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIzack Tago0.20-100%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.10-100%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins0.31+233%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti0.20-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o0.000%
08-07PENNathan Cleary1.41-29%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar0.000%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Adam's. Computed from this app's own records.