• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 2.9/game vs a 4.2 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 0.2 there (57 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.