0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 29.9/game vs a 23.7 league average
vs them: averages 1.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 19: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.4mm (62%)🌬 17.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Thomasvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
84.4
51
Run Metresneutral
100
1925.5
Thomas 84.4/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
24
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Thomas 0.6/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.6
74
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Thomas 24.6/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
43
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Thomas 0.1/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Thomas 0.0/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
43
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Thomas 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
25
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Thomas 0.1/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.9
60
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
601.3
Thomas 31.9/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Thomas84.4
51
SGI1925.5
100
Thomas 84.4/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Thomas0.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Points
29.9per game · league avg 23.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.7(76)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(3)+0.7
Dry games0.7(73)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Points
Avg diff
-0.4
Avg diff %
+6%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLThomas Flegler0.54+650%
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu1.20-100%
07-31DOLHerbie Farnworth1.90-100%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.70-100%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.70-100%
07-31DOLFrancis Molo0.000%
07-31DOLJack Bostock1.60-100%
07-31DOLKulikefu Finefeuiaki0.60-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Thomas's. Computed from this app's own records.