3.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.5 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.1
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 181.1/game vs a 185.9 league average
+1.4 at this ground — averages 4.8 there (39 gm)
vs them: averages 5.4 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Runs
181.1per game · league avg 185.9
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Accor Stadium4.8(39)+0.4
Everywhere else4.4(98)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)3.9(10)-0.7
Dry games4.6(127)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SOU · Runs
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+20%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARRyley Smith2.28+264%
08-08PARTallyn Da Silva3.66+67%
08-08PARToni Mataele4.10-100%
07-24MELJack Hetherington2.11-52%
07-24MELTrent Toelau3.86+56%
07-24MELAngus Hinchey4.30-100%
07-18CBROwen Pattie3.85+33%
07-18CBRTom Starling4.44-9%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Reed's. Computed from this app's own records.