28.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 28.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 27.2
+0.6 opponent leak — they concede 351.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
+0.7 at this ground — averages 28.7 there (20 gm)
vs them: averages 38.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 13 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackles
351.8per game · league avg 344.9
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Accor Stadium28.7(20)+0.7
Everywhere else28.0(31)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)27.5(6)-0.9
Dry games28.4(45)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackles
Avg diff
-4.0
Avg diff %
-15%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARKitione Kautoga30.334+12%
08-08PARTallyn Da Silva27.413-52%
08-08PARRyley Smith28.027-4%
08-08PARSaxon Pryke27.330+10%
08-02CROThomas Hazelton24.618-27%
08-02CROJesse Colquhoun30.232+6%
08-02CROBilly Burns28.718-37%
08-02CROBriton Nikora28.921-27%
Similar = season average within ±4.3 of Harry's. Computed from this app's own records.