11.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.2
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.1/game vs a 185.9 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 11.4 there (17 gm)
vs them: averages 7.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Runs
181.1per game · league avg 185.9
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Accor Stadium11.4(17)+3.5
Everywhere else7.9(80)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)6.3(6)-2.4
Dry games8.7(91)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SOU · Runs
Avg diff
+3.3
Avg diff %
+29%
Hit rate
7/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARKitione Kautoga12.215+23%
08-08PARJosh Addo-Carr12.39-27%
08-08PARSaxon Pryke10.016+60%
08-08PARJunior Paulo11.912+1%
08-08PARJack Williams12.619+51%
08-02CROJesse Colquhoun12.416+29%
08-02CROCameron McInnes10.516+53%
08-02CRONicho Hynes11.717+45%
Similar = season average within ±1.7 of Sitili's. Computed from this app's own records.