38.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 39.0 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 37.8
+0.8 opponent leak — they concede 351.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
−7.6 at this ground — averages 30.9 there (31 gm)
vs them: averages 31.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackles
351.8per game · league avg 344.9
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Accor Stadium30.9(31)-1.6
Everywhere else32.5(35)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)31.1(7)-0.7
Dry games31.8(59)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackles
Avg diff
-4.0
Avg diff %
-10%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARJack Williams40.339-3%
08-02CROTeig Wilton33.122-34%
08-02CROCameron McInnes34.639+13%
08-02CROBlayke Brailey40.443+7%
07-24MELTrent Loiero36.348+32%
07-24MELHarry Grant38.46-84%
07-18CBRCorey Horsburgh35.635-2%
07-18CBRNoah Martin40.035-12%
Similar = season average within ±5.8 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.