15.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 15.9 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 15.6
+0.3 opponent leak — they concede 351.8/game vs a 344.7 league average
+0.7 at this ground — averages 16.6 there (45 gm)
vs them: averages 15.4 over 11 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 32 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackles
351.8per game · league avg 344.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Accor Stadium16.6(45)+1.3
Everywhere else15.3(91)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)16.2(10)+0.5
Dry games15.7(126)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackles
Avg diff
+1.1
Avg diff %
+8%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARMitchell Moses17.016-6%
08-02CROOregon Kaufusi14.226+83%
08-02CROBraydon Trindall13.69-34%
08-02CROJesse Ramien13.710-27%
08-02CROKL Iro17.24-77%
07-24MELTrent Toelau15.829+83%
07-24MELJahrome Hughes15.318+18%
07-18CBRSimi Sasagi15.819+20%
Similar = season average within ±2.4 of Matt's. Computed from this app's own records.