• 7.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.9 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.9
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 24.4/game vs a 23.7 league average
• −2.2 at this ground — averages 5.1 there (31 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.3 over 12 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.