20.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 20.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 20.7
−0.5 opponent leak — they concede 181.1/game vs a 185.9 league average
+0.8 at this ground — averages 21.1 there (29 gm)
vs them: averages 19.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Runs
181.1per game · league avg 185.9
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Accor Stadium21.1(29)+5.2
Everywhere else15.9(92)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)11.4(10)-6.2
Dry games17.6(111)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SOU · Runs
Avg diff
-1.8
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARIsaiah Iongi18.88-57%
08-08PARBrian Kelly18.118-1%
08-02CROSione Katoa19.114-27%
07-24MELSualauvi Faalogo19.924+21%
07-18CBRSimi Sasagi17.424+38%
07-12NEWKalyn Ponga19.621+7%
07-12NEWGreg Marzhew18.510-46%
07-03PENThomas Jenkins19.217-11%
Similar = season average within ±3.0 of Connor's. Computed from this app's own records.