• 3.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.9 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.6
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 31.4/game vs a 32.8 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 3.3 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.