17.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 16.7 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 17.5
−1.1 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+10.6 at this ground — averages 27.6 there (22 gm)
vs them: averages 13.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o16.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Bronsonvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
16.7
8
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Bronson 16.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
7
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Bronson 0.2/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.7
61
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Bronson 19.7/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Bronson 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Bronson 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Bronson 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
21
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Bronson 0.1/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.6
7
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Bronson 3.6/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Bronson16.7
8
PEN1576.6
25
Bronson 16.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Bronson0.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Run Metres
1576.6per game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At AAMI Park27.6(22)+10.0
Everywhere else17.7(47)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)12.0(4)-9.4
Dry games21.4(65)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Run Metres
Avg diff
-10.4
Avg diff %
-59%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-03SOUJayden Sullivan17.60-100%
06-07WSTLatu Fainu17.115-12%
05-17SGILyhkan King-Togia15.90-100%
05-03MANBrandon Wakeham17.07-59%
04-09CBYBailey Hayward16.616-4%
04-03MELJack Hetherington18.819+1%
03-28PARRyley Smith19.10-100%
03-14CROBraden Hamlin-Uele18.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±2.5 of Bronson's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry119.5