23.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 22.6 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.1
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 548.9/game vs a 544.6 league average
+1.3 at this ground — averages 24.9 there (41 gm)
vs them: averages 18.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o22.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Alecvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
60.3
36
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Alec 60.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
12
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Alec 0.3/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.9
75
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Alec 24.9/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Alec 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Alec 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Alec 0.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Alec 0.1/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
22.6
42
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Alec 22.6/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Alec60.3
36
PEN1576.6
25
Alec 60.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Alec0.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Post Contact Metres
548.9per game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At AAMI Park24.9(41)+3.4
Everywhere else21.5(45)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)21.8(5)-1.4
Dry games23.2(81)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+9.0
Avg diff %
+40%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WAREddie Ieremia-Toeava21.843+97%
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira24.033+38%
08-01CBRMorgan Smithies22.324+8%
08-01CBRJed Stuart23.531+32%
07-23PARTeancum Brown23.351+119%
07-23PARLuca Moretti22.820-12%
07-16BRIEzra Mam22.134+54%
07-16BRIBen Talty24.220-17%
Similar = season average within ±3.4 of Alec's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5