13.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 13.2 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.2
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
−3.9 at this ground — averages 9.3 there (12 gm)
vs them: averages 3.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o13.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (31%)🌬 16.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ativaluvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
114.5
70
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Ativalu 114.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
50
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Ativalu 1.4/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.7
96
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Ativalu 38.7/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
73
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Ativalu 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Ativalu 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Ativalu 0.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
54
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Ativalu 0.4/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
45.0
83
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Ativalu 45.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Ativalu114.5
70
PEN1576.6
25
Ativalu 114.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Ativalu1.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park9.3(12)+2.3
Everywhere else7.1(16)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)5.3(3)-3.0
Dry games8.4(25)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-5%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARTanner Stowers-Smith11.511-5%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad13.819+37%
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.811-7%
08-07WARErin Clark14.614-4%
08-07WARAdam Pompey11.50-100%
08-01CBRZac Hosking11.513+13%
08-01CBRKaeo Weekes14.218+26%
08-01CBRSebastian Kris11.812+2%
Similar = season average within ±2.0 of Ativalu's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5