0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 2.6/game vs a 4.2 league average
+0.0 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (12 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (30%)🌬 9.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ativaluvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
114.5
70
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Ativalu 114.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
50
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Ativalu 1.4/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.7
96
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Ativalu 38.7/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
73
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Ativalu 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Ativalu 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Ativalu 0.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
54
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Ativalu 0.4/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
45.0
83
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Ativalu 45.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Ativalu114.5
70
PEN1576.6
25
Ativalu 114.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Ativalu1.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Tries
2.6per game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tries
At AAMI Park0.3(12)+0.3
Everywhere else0.1(16)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(3)-0.2
Dry games0.2(25)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Tries
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-42%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARLeka Halasima0.40-100%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.10-100%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak0.90-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.20-100%
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira0.90-100%
08-07WARChanel Harris-Tavita0.31+217%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad0.71+44%
08-07WARWayde Egan0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ativalu's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry0.5