0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 15.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (56 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 12 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 12: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 16.3°C☂ 0mm (30%)🌬 9.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
97.7
60
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Josh 97.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
31
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Josh 0.8/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.8
88
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Josh 31.8/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
38
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Josh 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Josh 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
38
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Josh 0.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
66
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Josh 0.6/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
35.7
67
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Josh 35.7/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Josh97.7
60
PEN1576.6
25
Josh 97.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Josh0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Points
15.1per game · league avg 23.7
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At AAMI Park0.5(56)+0.1
Everywhere else0.4(89)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(11)-0.4
Dry games0.4(134)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Points
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-37%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARWayde Egan0.40-100%
08-07WARJacob Laban0.80-100%
08-07WARLeka Halasima1.40-100%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris0.50-100%
08-07WARMitchell Barnett0.000%
08-07WARKurt Capewell0.80-100%
08-07WARAli Leiataua0.90-100%
08-07WARErin Clark1.04+300%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry1.5