8.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.9 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.2
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
+2.1 at this ground — averages 10.1 there (54 gm)
vs them: averages 5.8 over 13 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o7.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Harryvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
55.3
32
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Harry 55.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.7
58
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Harry 1.7/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.4
96
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Harry 38.4/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
75
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Harry 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
84
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Harry 0.4/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
82
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Harry 0.5/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
69
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Harry 0.6/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.6
20
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Harry 10.6/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Harry55.3
32
PEN1576.6
25
Harry 55.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Harry1.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park10.1(54)+1.7
Everywhere else8.3(67)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)4.9(7)-4.5
Dry games9.4(114)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-1.3
Avg diff %
-16%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARJacob Laban8.311+33%
08-01CBREthan Strange8.911+24%
08-01CBRMorgan Smithies7.06-14%
07-23PARMitchell Moses7.56-20%
07-23PARJoash Papalii8.10-100%
07-23PARDylan Walker9.18-12%
07-23PARRonald Volkman8.49+7%
07-23PARLuca Moretti8.14-50%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Harry's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5