• 0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.6
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 3.2/game vs a 3.9 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (54 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.2 over 13 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.