9.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.8 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.0
−3.3 opponent leak — they concede 15.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
−5.1 at this ground — averages 4 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 3.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 36 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Points
15.1per game · league avg 23.7
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At CommBank Stadium4.0(5)-3.8
Everywhere else7.8(101)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)6.2(10)-1.5
Dry games7.8(96)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Liam Henry1.5