0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 29.9/game vs a 23.7 league average
vs them: averages 0.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Addinvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
139.1
84
Run Metresfavorable
100
1925.5
Addin 139.1/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.7
82
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Addin 2.7/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.5
74
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Addin 24.5/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Triesneutral
100
5.2
Addin 0.1/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
45
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Addin 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.1
Addin 0.1/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
84
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Addin 0.9/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
58.1
96
Post Contact Metresfavorable
88
601.3
Addin 58.1/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Addin139.1
84
SGI1925.5
100
Addin 139.1/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Addin2.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Points
29.9per game · league avg 23.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.8(129)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.7(11)-0.1
Dry games0.8(118)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Points
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
+6%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.70-100%
07-31DOLKulikefu Finefeuiaki0.60-100%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.70-100%
07-31DOLThomas Flegler0.54+650%
07-31DOLFrancis Molo0.000%
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu1.20-100%
07-31DOLJack Bostock1.60-100%
07-31DOLMorgan Knowles0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Addin's. Computed from this app's own records.