2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.3 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.3
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 30.7/game vs a 32.7 league average
vs them: averages 2.8 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o2.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jessevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
129.5
80
Run Metresfavorable
100
1925.5
Jesse 129.5/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
75
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.7
Jesse 2.3/game
SGI concedes 30.7/game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.7
41
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Jesse 13.7/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
81
Triesfavorable
100
5.2
Jesse 0.4/game
SGI concedes 5.2/game · league avg 4.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
64
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Jesse 0.2/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
85
Line Breaksfavorable
81
6.1
Jesse 0.5/game
SGI concedes 6.1/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
85
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Jesse 0.9/game
SGI concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
45.0
83
Post Contact Metresfavorable
88
601.3
Jesse 45.0/game
SGI concedes 601.3/game · league avg 544.6
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Jesse129.5
80
SGI1925.5
100
Jesse 129.5/game
SGI concedes 1925.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jesse2.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tackle Breaks
30.7per game · league avg 32.7
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else3.6(126)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)2.3(7)-1.4
Dry games3.7(119)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
+7%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31DOLThomas Flegler1.41-29%
07-31DOLKulikefu Finefeuiaki2.63+14%
07-31DOLJack Bostock2.55+100%
07-31DOLKodi Nikorima0.91+13%
07-31DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.81+20%
07-31DOLConnelly Lemuelu2.11-51%
07-31DOLJamayne Isaako2.90-100%
07-31DOLKurt Donoghoe1.63+86%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jesse's. Computed from this app's own records.