34.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 34.6 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 34.9
+2.1 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.7 league average
−2.0 at this ground — averages 32.7 there (67 gm)
vs them: averages 34.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tackles
365.4per game · league avg 344.7
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Suncorp Stadium32.7(67)+1.1
Everywhere else31.6(47)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)35.1(7)+3.0
Dry games32.1(107)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Tackles
Avg diff
+4.3
Avg diff %
+14%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIsaah Yeo36.719-48%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i33.438+14%
08-07PENLindsay Smith30.050+67%
08-07PENLiam Henry33.547+40%
08-01GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui31.528-11%
08-01GLDOliver Pascoe38.144+16%
08-01GLDBeau Fermor34.644+27%
07-25CBYBailey Hayward39.041+5%
Similar = season average within ±5.2 of Payne's. Computed from this app's own records.