• 37.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 35.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 41.5
• +1.1 opponent leak — they concede 559.8/game vs a 544.6 league average
• −1.6 at this ground — averages 36.2 there (26 gm)
• −8.1 wet forecast — averages 29.7 in the wet (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 31.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 73 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.