110.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 126.4 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 85.5
+1.9 opponent leak — they concede 1715.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
vs them: averages 161.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o126.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Deanvs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
126.4
78
Run Metresfavorable
63
1715.7
Dean 126.4/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
50
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.7
Dean 1.4/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.0
11
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Dean 4.0/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Dean 0.2/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Dean 0.0/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Dean 0.2/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
63
10.0
Dean 0.0/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
44.2
82
Post Contact Metresfavorable
63
558.0
Dean 44.2/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Dean126.4
78
NEW1715.7
63
Dean 126.4/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Dean1.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Run Metres
1715.7per game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At McDonald Jones Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else84.3(32)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)73.3(3)-12.1
Dry games85.4(29)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Run Metres
Avg diff
-26.1
Avg diff %
-20%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRSavelio Tamale135.30-100%
08-09CBRXavier Savage131.876-42%
08-09CBRCorey Horsburgh115.7112-3%
08-09CBRJoseph Tapine135.0129-4%
08-01BRIPatrick Carrigan127.191-28%
08-01BRIDeine Mariner134.8152+13%
08-01BRIReece Walsh133.8168+26%
08-01BRIJordan Riki108.986-21%
Similar = season average within ±19.0 of Dean's. Computed from this app's own records.