1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.2 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.6/game vs a 32.7 league average
vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 15.7°C☂ 0.9mm (77%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Olivervs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
41.1
21
Run Metresneutral
56
1722.7
Oliver 41.1/game
NEW concedes 1722.7/game · league avg 1687.8
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
45
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.6
Oliver 1.2/game
NEW concedes 33.6/game · league avg 32.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.1
95
Tacklesunfavorable
19
333.3
Oliver 38.1/game
NEW concedes 333.3/game · league avg 344.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
67
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Oliver 0.2/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
68
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Oliver 0.2/game
NEW concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
51
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.5
Oliver 0.2/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
71
Offloadsfavorable
63
10.2
Oliver 0.6/game
NEW concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.0
22
Post Contact Metresneutral
63
559.8
Oliver 12.0/game
NEW concedes 559.8/game · league avg 544.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Oliver41.1
21
NEW1722.7
56
Oliver 41.1/game
NEW concedes 1722.7/game · league avg 1687.8
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Oliver1.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Tackle Breaks
33.6per game · league avg 32.7
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At McDonald Jones Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else1.2(17)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.5(2)+0.4
Dry games1.1(15)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
-0.7
Avg diff %
-71%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01BRIAdam Reynolds0.90-100%
08-01BRIXavier Willison1.80-100%
08-01BRIGrant Anderson0.70-100%
08-01BRIEzra Mam2.20-100%
08-01BRIVa'a Semu0.50-100%
08-01BRICory Paix0.20-100%
08-01BRIJosiah Karapani2.25+131%
08-01BRIJordan Riki1.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Oliver's. Computed from this app's own records.