1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 9 1.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.6°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 10.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Brianvs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
8.3
3
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Brian 8.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
38
31.9
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
1
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Brian 0.9/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
100
11.6
Brian 0.0/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.4
4
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Brian 2.4/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Brian8.3
3
MAN1613.3
31
Brian 8.3/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Brian0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Runs
186.4per game · league avg 185.9
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park—(0)
Everywhere else1.1(9)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-1.3
Dry games1.3(8)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MAN · Runs
Avg diff
-0.5
Avg diff %
-36%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MELJack Hetherington2.10-100%
07-19GLDSam Verrills1.40-100%
07-19GLDMichael Molo0.000%
06-27MELJack Hetherington2.13+45%
06-27MELJosiah Pahulu0.30-100%
06-27MELStanley Huen1.72+20%
06-20CBYAlex Conti0.000%
06-20CBYBailey Hayward2.11-52%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Brian's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5