• 2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 1.8
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 64.2/game vs a 56.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.