• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 9 0.8
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 87/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.