• 2.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 88.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 9: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.