• 1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.7
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 92/game vs a 93.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.