• 1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 11.9/game vs a 12.2 league average
• −0.0 at this ground — averages 1.6 there (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.