• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.6
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 9.6/game vs a 12.2 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.