• 0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 40/game vs a 35.3 league average
• +0.4 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (78 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 20: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.