• 17.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 17.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 17.3
• +0.8 opponent leak — they concede 386.2/game vs a 369 league average
• −3.3 at this ground — averages 14.3 there (31 gm)
• vs them: averages 16.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.