• 4.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.1
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 87/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −1.6 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (64 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.3 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.