• 1.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 32.7/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 0.9 there (30 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.