• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.9/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +2.1 at this ground — averages 2.8 there (16 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.9 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.