• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 16.4/game vs a 12.2 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 0.2 there (51 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 11 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.