• 2.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.0 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.8
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 50.6/game vs a 56.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 2.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.